Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7F 0x7fa7…7afa other 54 markets active 3d ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$2
world 26% +$4
politics 21% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 4% +$4
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 0% -7.6%
all 54 +2.0% -7.8% 39% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 6% -8.1%
10% -16.6% 4% -16.9%
15% -24.6% 4% -24.9%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.14 per $1 lost it wins $4.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage392d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $102 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $49 +$4 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 28 $20 −$1 -3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $7 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Mirra Andreeva win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? Jul 07 $8 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in the New York City Mayoral Democ Jul 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 01 $7 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $47 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $54 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $54 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $49 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 203d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 324d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 324d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 324d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 324d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 324d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 324d
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? SELL No 100¢ $8 324d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $13 324d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $13 324d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $12 324d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $13 325d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records