Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fa7…938a world 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$9
other 25% +$1
sports 17% −$9
politics 13% +$1
economics 6% $0
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 30 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 77 -1.6% -11.0% 34% 1% -9.8%
all 93 -3.4% -12.6% 37% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -10.0%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage532d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $153 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $30 −$6 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $47 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +14%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $11 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $33 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $36 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $36 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $27 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $37 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 308 history records