Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7fac…9821 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$7
other 22% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +57.9% +42.9% 100% 80% +22.0%
≤30d 5 +57.9% +42.9% 100% 80% +22.0%
≤90d 5 +57.9% +42.9% 100% 80% +22.0%
all 5 +57.9% +42.9% 100% 80% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.9% 80% +22.0%
10% +29.2% 80% +10.3%
15% +16.7% 60% -0.3%
20% +5.3% 40% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records