Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7faf…e2b5 sports 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-3%) realized −$281 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%155W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$745
7 days−$1,057
14 days−$1,015
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$507
sports 39% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+82.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +72.9% +56.4% 28% 26% -40.7%
≤30d 383 +90.1% +72.0% 34% 27% -18.2%
≤90d 430 +101.3% +82.1% 36% 28% -16.9%
all 430 +101.3% +82.1% 36% 28% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +82.1% 28% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here +64.7% 25% -24.9%
15% +48.8% 22% -32.1%
20% +34.2% 21% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late +128% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$281
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses155 / 275
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions10
Markets (closed)430 / 207
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Martyna Kubka vs. Aliona Falei: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 80¢ 50¢ $96 $60 −$36 (-37%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Leo Raquillet 49¢ 100¢ $19 $39 +$20 (+103%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Titouan Droguet 78¢ 98¢ $30 $37 +$8 (+27%)
Kubka vs. Falei: Match O/U 21.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Allura Zamarripa 53¢ 68¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+28%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 17¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Tomasz Berkieta 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 33¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Xiaodi You 62¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ventforet Kōfu vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1044%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -54%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$8 -165%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-04-23? Jun 16 $0 +$22 +6986%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Will FC Fredericia vs. Vejle BK end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will CA Lanús vs. Club Always Ready end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary end in a d Jun 16 $0 −$2 -952%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-13? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. AZ end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Columbus Crew vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +1804%
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Querétaro FC vs. CF América end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +204%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-03-17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-04-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vejle BK win on 2026-04-13? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-23? Jun 16 $13 −$37 -277%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CF América vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +221%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-22? Jun 16 $6 −$12 -192%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-23? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1341%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 77¢ $2 0m
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 9¢ $1 1m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 51¢ $1 7m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 47¢ $2 8m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 50¢ $1 10m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 48¢ $1 10m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 20¢ $1 16m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 15¢ $1 22m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 16¢ $1 25m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 10¢ $1 34m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 15¢ $1 40m
Martyna Kubka vs. Aliona Falei: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $13 46m
Kubka vs. Falei: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $32 46m
Martyna Kubka vs. Aliona Falei: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $11 46m
Martyna Kubka vs. Aliona Falei: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 98¢ $72 47m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 77¢ $2 47m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 69¢ $1 54m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 74¢ $2 55m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 77¢ $2 57m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $10 58m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 80¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 74¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 77¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 77¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 80¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 79¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 80¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 79¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 79¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.87 · official $176.21 · 3500 history records