Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fb9…b9cb world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$8
other 26% −$8
politics 16% −$1
tech 8% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -2.7% -12.0% 31% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 16 -2.6% -11.9% 31% 0% -10.9%
all 50 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $15 −$4 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $41 −$4 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $20 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 22 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $19 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $37 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $16 10h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $18 10h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $21 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $8 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $29 29h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $7 29h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $37 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $34 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.10 · official $2.00 (match) · 159 history records