Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fc4…720e crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$417 (-6%) realized −$416 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%48W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$243
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$113
sports 16% −$76
other 10% −$343
world 1% −$6
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -77.4% -79.5% 0% 0% -84.8%
≤30d 9 -84.9% -86.4% 0% 0% -86.2%
≤90d 95 -20.0% -27.6% 51% 38% -16.4%
all 95 -20.0% -27.6% 51% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -16.4%
10% -34.6% 28% -24.4%
15% -40.9% 20% -31.7%
20% -46.7% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$416
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses48 / 47
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage54d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$21 -68%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $71 −$50 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$47 -77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$17 -24%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $62 +$48 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $21 +$9 +46%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Apr 30 $1 +$3 +300%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $100 +$11 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $502 +$66 +13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $80 −$80 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $111 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 29 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 29 $26 −$26 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Apr 29 $111 −$10 -9%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $170 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $25 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 29 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 29 $332 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 29 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 29 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 29 $122 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 29 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 29 $107 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 29 $56 +$27 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 26 $200 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 26 $25 +$29 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 26 $33 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 26 $5 −$3 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $10 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $2 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 46¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 34¢ $32 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $52 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 11d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11d
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 11d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 60¢ $30 48d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 48d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 56¢ $62 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 49d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 49d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 49d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 57¢ $64 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 49d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 24¢ $7 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.79 · official $109.46 (match) · 305 history records