Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7fc8…bdd5 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,025 (+2%) realized +$3,899 · open −$2,874
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$17,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 236d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1,017
crypto 32% +$26
politics 26% −$3,304
other 3% +$110
finance 2% +$44
sports 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 22% -6.4%
≤30d 20 -7.3% -16.1% 65% 30% -6.0%
≤90d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 30% -6.5%
all 42 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 29% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 29% -6.9%
10% -31.9% 14% -15.8%
15% -38.5% 12% -24.0%
20% -44.5% 5% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$15 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$17,589
Realized+$3,899
Unrealized−$2,874
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage236d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $5,250 $8,573 +$3,323 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $5,250 $1,927 −$3,323 (-63%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 90¢ $1,454 $1,586 +$132 (+9%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $1,120 $1,303 +$183 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,070 $1,097 +$27 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,032 $1,086 +$54 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $1,005 $1,020 +$15 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $481 $500 +$18 (+4%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $477 $497 +$20 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $675 +$29 +4%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$6 -18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $261 +$24 +9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $197 +$27 +14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $117 +$18 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $336 +$12 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $435 $0 -0%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $86 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,140 +$80 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5,811 −$19 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,342 +$171 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $948 +$155 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $431 +$20 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $596 +$50 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $7,126 +$31 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $174 +$36 +20%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $80 −$71 -89%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $600 +$295 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $5,000 +$3 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $30 +$61 +203%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Over $12M committed to the Space public sale? Feb 10 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%? Jan 07 $10 +$5 +49%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $20 −$20 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 09 $120 −$4 -3%
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 09 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Dec 08 $5 +$20 +400%
Over $15M committed to the VOOI public sale? Nov 21 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election? Nov 01 $5 −$1 -18%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $15 +$7 +47%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $35 −$20 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $704 1h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 8h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 19h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 39h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 40h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $25 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $243 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $22 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $161 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 91¢ $22 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 91¢ $0 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 91¢ $23 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $2 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $1 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $0 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $2 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $109 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 64¢ $33 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $16 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $8 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $44 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 85¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,588.75 · official $17,588.75 (match) · 452 history records