Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fc8…bad0 other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 23% −$2
politics 16% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.5%
all 67 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage278d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $131 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 21 $27 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $6 −$2 -30%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 20 $2 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in October? Oct 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $10 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $34 −$1 -4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $40 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $40 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $14 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $14 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $28 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $1 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $18 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $1 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $18 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $1 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $37 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $7 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $32 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $6 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $35 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $41 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.87 · official $39.87 (match) · 203 history records