Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fcb…bc37 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,562 (-50%) realized −$2,562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%48W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$2,563
tech 3% +$1
world 3% +$1
crypto 2% −$2
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -8.1% -16.8% 91% 6% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 6% -56.4%
10% -24.8% 0% -60.6%
15% -32.0% 0% -64.4%
20% -38.7% 0% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$515 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$2,562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses48 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage204d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 18 $132 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Apr 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $70 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 26 $54 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 13 $40 +$1 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $1 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 02 $1 $0 +15%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
BNB all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $10 $0 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 24? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $120 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 21d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 29d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 34d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 41d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 48d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 54d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 61d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $55 61d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 68d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 75d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 77d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 86d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 91d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 95d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 97d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 97d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $58 101d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 108d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $60 108d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 123d
Will Australia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 130d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 137d
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.07 · official $135.07 (match) · 104 history records