Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fcb…ffab politics 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$22
other 12% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 87 -5.2% -14.2% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage670d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Feb 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will RJ Barrett win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will Trump nominate Elise Stefanik for Education Secretary? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 14h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 36d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 37d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 42d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 43d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $54 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $54 73d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 86d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $54 87d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $54 96d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $54 97d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 100d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 100d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 102d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 102d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 106d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 107d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $54 110d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $54 111d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $54 113d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $54 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records