Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fcc…e083 other 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,037 (-23%) realized −$23,315 · open +$1,278
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%70W / 112L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$573est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$5,536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$900
7 days−$4,245
14 days−$3,474
30 days+$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14,225
sports 39% +$60
politics 10% −$9,235
economics 0% −$82
world 0% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -24.5% -31.7% 43% 38% -51.3%
≤30d 45 -23.0% -30.3% 42% 38% -6.7%
≤90d 61 -29.8% -36.5% 39% 36% -28.8%
all 182 -13.4% -21.6% 38% 37% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 37% -34.4%
10% -29.1% 35% -40.7%
15% -36.0% 31% -46.4%
20% -42.2% 25% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$457 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$5,536
Realized−$23,315
Unrealized+$1,278
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses70 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$573
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 186
History coverage154d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3,503 $4,786 +$1,283 (+37%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $754 $749 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $239 −$235 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $111 −$108 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $176 +$64 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $394 −$394 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $803 +$122 +15%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $400 −$17 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $125 −$123 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $383 −$258 -67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $229 +$150 +66%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $439 +$215 +49%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $180 −$78 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $667 +$53 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $621 +$97 +16%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $104 +$218 +210%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $529 +$178 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $143 −$139 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,020 −$2,994 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $771 +$406 +53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $773 +$82 +11%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,013 +$696 +69%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $110 +$7 +7%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,021 +$410 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $580 −$580 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $146 −$10 -7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$22 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $389 −$327 -84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$8 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $141 −$139 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $304 +$333 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 +$202 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $204 −$2 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 03 $130 −$127 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $328 +$103 +31%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? May 31 $512 −$500 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,135 +$4,840 +154%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $144 −$141 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $124 −$124 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $596 −$583 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 16 $5,845 +$2,029 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,286 −$1,257 -98%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 06 $500 +$327 +65%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $5,793 −$5,766 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $759 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $755 17m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $111 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $111 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $239 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $240 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $176 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $172 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $366 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 18h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $98 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $279 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $384 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $400 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $890 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $425 23h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $427 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 35¢ $125 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 26¢ $125 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $383 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $379 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $228 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1,028 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,535.56 · official $5,535.56 (match) · 568 history records