Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7F 0x7fcd…0a9c sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-5%) realized −$82 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%30W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$43
14 days−$100
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$148
other 16% −$8
crypto 15% +$119
economics 4% −$38
tech 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.5% -21.7% 42% 33% -23.1%
≤30d 20 -33.2% -39.5% 35% 30% -38.3%
≤90d 52 +30.2% +17.8% 46% 44% -27.0%
all 58 +36.0% +23.1% 52% 50% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 50% -13.3%
10% +11.3% 48% -21.6%
15% +0.5% 45% -29.2%
20% -9.3% 36% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +61% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses30 / 28
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage132d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $25 $17 −$7 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $16 +$13 +78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$15 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $58 −$5 -9%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$16 -31%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 04 $63 −$38 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +16%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $21 +$21 +97%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $10 +$13 +124%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$33 +325%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$21 +42%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $61 +$44 +73%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$12 +120%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $36 −$36 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H Moneyline Apr 27 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $27 +$12 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $40 −$39 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $20 +$18 +91%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $22 +$18 +82%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5 Apr 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $17 +$22 +128%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 22 $23 +$26 +114%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $20 +$39 +197%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 12 $24 +$26 +109%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 Apr 12 $37 −$37 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 12 $57 −$57 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 12 $14 +$6 +43%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 28 $80 +$21 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $25 +$14 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $29 29m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $16 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 48¢ $25 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $27 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 48¢ $28 4d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 83¢ $21 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 4d
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $30 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $20 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $40 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 8d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $24 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.67 · official $75.67 (match) · 158 history records