Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7F 0x7fd3…e662 crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$33,987 (+37%) realized +$30,555 · open +$3,432
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%41W / 380L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$13,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$19,428
crypto 33% −$1,624
other 9% −$3,926
finance 7% −$5,937
tech 4% −$2,510
economics 2% +$2,459
sports 1% −$1,021
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -57.0% -61.1% 6% 6% -61.4%
≤30d 245 -56.3% -60.5% 7% 7% -55.9%
≤90d 350 -44.9% -50.1% 11% 10% -42.3%
all 421 -46.8% -51.9% 10% 9% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.9% 9% -44.6%
10% ← realistic here -56.5% 9% -49.9%
15% -60.7% 8% -54.8%
20% -64.6% 8% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,264 vs −$274 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$13,403
Realized+$30,555
Unrealized+$3,432
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses41 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions14
Markets (closed)421 / 218
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$420
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 49¢ $3,816 $4,254 +$438 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 72¢ $1,030 $2,175 +$1,145 (+111%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 86¢ $800 $1,728 +$928 (+116%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $588 $1,391 +$802 (+136%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 20¢ 55¢ $200 $545 +$345 (+172%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 26¢ 26¢ $530 $510 −$20 (-4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 6¢ 96¢ $29 $462 +$433 (+1512%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 23¢ 20¢ $460 $410 −$50 (-11%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $230 $335 +$105 (+46%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 11¢ 28¢ $110 $275 +$165 (+150%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 1¢ 71¢ $2 $186 +$184 (+9913%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 2¢ $95 $98 +$4 (+4%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $138 $17 −$121 (-88%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 368 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? Jun 18 $623 −$623 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10? Jun 18 $540 −$540 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on September 26? Jun 18 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 17? Jun 18 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 18 $1,008 −$1,010 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 20? Jun 18 $605 −$605 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 12? Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 22? Jun 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 21? Jun 18 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? Jun 18 $455 −$455 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 8? Jun 18 $434 −$434 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Jun 18 $246 −$246 -100%
Yoon arrested before September? Jun 18 $2,087 −$2,087 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 23? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 26? Jun 18 $287 −$274 -95%
Bitcoin above $108K on August 29? Jun 18 $229 −$229 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 14? Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in July? Jun 18 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8? Jun 18 $270 −$270 -100%
Joe Biden book deal in 2025? Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 12? Jun 18 $150 −$147 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on July 18? Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 27? Jun 18 $174 −$185 -106%
Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Yoon in jail before August? Jun 18 $1,953 −$2,699 -138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jun 18 $189 −$189 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3400 on July 23? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 24? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 22? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 30? Jun 18 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jun 18 $618 −$618 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 22 at 5PM Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on August 15? Jun 18 $470 −$959 -204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 6? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? Jun 18 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 25? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? Jun 18 $418 −$418 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 16? Jun 18 $179 −$179 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18? Jun 18 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2900 and $3000 on July 18? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $16 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $18 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $14 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $361 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 12¢ $120 8h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 14¢ $70 11h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 14¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,402.85 · official $13,402.85 (match) · 3500 history records