Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7fdb…0d6f sports 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$97 (+8%) realized +$94 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%51W / 55L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$123
14 days+$140
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$79
other 9% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +22.1% +10.5% 58% 55% +9.8%
≤30d 106 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 47% +1.1%
≤90d 106 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 47% +1.1%
all 106 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 47% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 47% +1.1%
10% -19.8% 42% -8.6%
15% -27.5% 36% -17.4%
20% -34.6% 29% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses51 / 55
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions19
Markets (closed)106 / 125
History coverage21d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 2 Winner ex-RUBY 78¢ 100¢ $78 $100 +$22 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Subtop De France 33¢ 30¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs BIG Academy 50¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Guara Esports 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Atreides 61¢ 58¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Wingman - Map 1 Winner ENJOY 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage paiN Academy 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs Keyd 37¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage TYLOO 43¢ 46¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Procyon Gaming 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Red Feet 39¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Lynn Vision 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 49¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 65¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+54%)
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Wingman (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group D ENJOY 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner QUAZAR 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group A Omega 44¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner HOTU Academy 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vexa 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualifier: Series #2 Group C HOTU Academy 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $10 +$12 +115%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 27 $15 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: NEXORA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 27 $85 +$31 +36%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $1 $0 -43%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $61 +$18 +29%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Wingman - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $27 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $8 +$20 +259%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 27 $7 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Wingman (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 27 $50 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $123 −$53 -43%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $48 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs QUAZAR (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Qualif Jun 26 $9 +$20 +212%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $2 +$8 +474%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $4 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $7 +$13 +197%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $4 +$6 +179%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 22 $37 +$12 +34%
Will ZywOo have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 22 $3 +$1 +21%
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +16%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $2 +$3 +104%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $3 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $8 +$2 +33%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 +$2 +49%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 +$4 +245%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 9¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 7¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 78¢ $79 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 8¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 7¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 7¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY HOTU Academy 13¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Procyon Gaming 61¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Atreides 61¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 50¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU Academy 14¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU Academy 12¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 87¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 87¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 87¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 87¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 87¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 15¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 17¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL HOTU Academy 16¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.19 · official $175.48 (match) · 370 history records