Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fdc…efad sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,036 (-15%) realized −$1,022 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%57W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$194
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$654
crypto 23% −$326
other 19% −$283
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -19.5%
≤30d 63 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -19.5%
≤90d 63 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -19.5%
all 173 -19.9% -27.5% 33% 32% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 32% -26.9%
10% -34.4% 28% -33.9%
15% -40.8% 25% -40.3%
20% -46.6% 21% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$1,022
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses57 / 116
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)173 / 181
History coverage266d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-25%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: England (-4.5) England 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $133 +$75 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $164 −$60 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $139 +$49 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $133 +$16 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$18 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$23 +32%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 +$20 +130%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$4 +181%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$9 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 -16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6 $0 +4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$10 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England 10¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.50 · official $144.50 (match) · 421 history records