Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fde…a06f world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$11
other 21% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 0% -11.5%
all 33 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -11.0%
10% -21.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage455d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $39 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $46 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $43 −$10 -23%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $39 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on July 11? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 23? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in May 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $29 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $29 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $21 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $29 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $18 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $16 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $16 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $29 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $30 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $19 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $20 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $20 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $43 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $42 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $42 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $21 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records