Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7F 0x7fe0…c334 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$435 (+103%) realized +$436 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip

Net edge+94%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$9

7 days+$9

14 days+$186

30 days+$186

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+93.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+4.6%	-5.4%	50%	50%	-0.3%
≤30d	3	+61.1%	+45.7%	67%	67%	+79.8%
≤90d	3	+61.1%	+45.7%	67%	67%	+79.8%
all	5	+114.1%	+93.7%	60%	60%	+128.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+93.7%	60%	+128.9%
10%	+75.1%	60%	+107.0%
15%	+58.2%	60%	+87.0%
20%	+42.7%	60%	+68.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +99% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +114% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$174 vs −$40 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.49 per $1 lost it wins $6.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage

Net worth$129

Realized+$436

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage154d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$35	$42	+$7 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$50	$41	−$9 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$25	$28	+$3 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$46	+$50	+109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$102	+$177	+174%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Mar 02	$61	+$295	+487%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	Jan 18	$39	−$39	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$96	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	47¢	$46	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$41	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$36	7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$26	7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	20d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	100¢	$355	111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	17¢	$61	124d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$39	154d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.94 · official $128.94 (match) · 21 history records