Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fe0…ebe1 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$704per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$183
14 days+$183
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 42% -7.7%
≤30d 13 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 38% -7.8%
≤90d 13 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 38% -7.8%
all 13 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 38% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 38% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 15% -16.6%
15% -29.5% 8% -24.6%
20% -36.4% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$79 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage15d
Avg bet$704
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $403 −$107 -27%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $1,318 +$216 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $102 +$18 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1,284 −$199 -16%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $1,824 −$68 -4%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1,221 +$93 +8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $861 +$62 +7%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $34 −$12 -35%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $102 +$37 +36%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $860 −$72 -8%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $788 +$130 +16%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $306 +$86 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $50 −$13 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 16¢ $74 22m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 20¢ $98 28m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 19¢ $60 30m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 31¢ $102 38m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 42¢ $162 39m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 50¢ $102 41m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 90¢ $545 42m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 92¢ $23 43m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 94¢ $112 43m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 94¢ $38 43m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 94¢ $20 43m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 92¢ $9 47m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 92¢ $9 47m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 92¢ $9 47m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 52¢ $102 47m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 87¢ $15 50m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 65¢ $53 56m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 53¢ $102 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 53¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records