Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fe1…5d8b crypto 641 markets active 1h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,483 (-6%) realized −$1,483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%201W / 440L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$248
14 days−$381
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,982
other 0% −$35
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 42% -32.9%
≤30d 233 +3.8% -6.1% 28% 28% -15.0%
≤90d 528 -2.4% -11.7% 34% 34% -14.5%
all 641 -7.0% -15.9% 31% 31% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 31% -18.1%
10% -23.9% 31% -26.0%
15% -31.3% 30% -33.1%
20% -38.0% 30% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$37 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses201 / 440
Open positions0
Markets (closed)641 / 641
History coverage386d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 641 Trades
no open positions (411 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$18 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$56 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$9 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $104 −$61 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1024 history records