Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7fe1…473a crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-4%) realized −$296 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%76W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$21
14 days−$52
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$273
other 16% −$53
sports 4% +$25
world 4% −$4
politics 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +68.9% +52.8% 50% 50% -6.8%
≤30d 24 +63.1% +47.6% 50% 50% -13.7%
≤90d 126 +8.5% -1.8% 60% 53% -15.3%
all 126 +8.5% -1.8% 60% 53% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 53% -15.3%
10% -11.2% 39% -23.4%
15% -19.8% 29% -30.8%
20% -27.7% 18% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$36 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses76 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)126 / 130
History coverage73d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $84 $110 +$26 (+31%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 82¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$40 +394%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$5 -18%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$47 +1519%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$35 +111%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $101 −$73 -72%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$14 +70%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $91 +$26 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 17 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 17 $29 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 17 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 17 $29 +$19 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 17 $77 −$25 -32%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 17 $51 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 17 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $103 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 17 $28 −$20 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $30 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 17 $30 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 17 $79 −$16 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 17 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $51 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.02 · official $159.02 (match) · 431 history records