Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fe5…bd90 crypto 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$418 (-8%) realized −$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%129W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days+$224
14 days+$224
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$496
weather 8% −$20
other 1% +$22
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +36.7% +23.7% 62% 60% +4.8%
≤30d 50 +16.8% +5.7% 54% 52% -2.8%
≤90d 93 +8.9% -1.4% 47% 46% -9.4%
all 343 -8.3% -17.0% 38% 34% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 34% -19.3%
10% -25.0% 32% -27.0%
15% -32.2% 29% -34.0%
20% -38.9% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses129 / 214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 343
History coverage134d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (203 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $99 +$110 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$64 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $49 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $94 +$80 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $91 +$23 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $145 +$55 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $43 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $49 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$61 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$39 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $90 −$86 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $73 −$40 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $98 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $37 +$45 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$26 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$11 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $38 −$16 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $28 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $209 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $99 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $36 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $16 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $126 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $61 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $19 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $40 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $40 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 847 history records