Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7fed…9664 sports 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$351 (+1%) realized +$307 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%120W / 69L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$50
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$180
other 25% −$30
crypto 7% +$11
sports 5% +$110
politics 2% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 53% 47% -8.5%
≤30d 170 +2.3% -7.4% 60% 43% -8.9%
≤90d 189 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 40% -9.1%
all 189 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 40% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 40% -9.1%
10% -16.2% 39% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 34% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,399
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses120 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions13
Markets (closed)189 / 202
History coverage40d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,272 $1,283 +$11 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $498 $489 −$8 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 92¢ $210 $216 +$6 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Dalibor Svrcina 50¢ 88¢ $30 $53 +$23 (+77%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Karolina Pliskova 61¢ 94¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+55%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Tommy Paul 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Kyrian Jacquet 57¢ 55¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ 16¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 74¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 59¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $20 +$26 +129%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $270 $0 +0%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $177 +$7 +4%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $20 +$13 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$54 +262%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $20 +$26 +129%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $20 +$37 +180%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $20 +$59 +288%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $20 +$12 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $20 +$12 +57%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $139 +$4 +3%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $20 +$11 +55%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $20 +$15 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 57¢ $30 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $30 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 49¢ $30 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $30 1h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 50¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,748 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,601 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,401 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,180 7h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 60¢ $20 23h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $20 35h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 43¢ $20 35h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 19¢ $20 35h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 29¢ $20 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $270 2d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $20 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $20 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $20 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $20 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $20 3d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $20 3d
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 57¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 39¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $20 3d
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 56¢ $20 3d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 57¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,399.21 · official $2,402.11 (match) · 575 history records