Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7fee…c648 other 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 47L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$2
world 44% +$19
finance 2% −$2
politics 2% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 25 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.4%
all 86 -0.6% -10.1% 45% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage459d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $221 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $477 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $176 −$2 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $234 +$5 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $183 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $204 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $186 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $136 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $247 +$15 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $188 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $192 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $124 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $65 +$6 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $154 +$2 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $2,248 −$10 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $1,068 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $132 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 23 $4 $0 -6%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jul 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 21 $6 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jul 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 10 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $37 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $59 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $6 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $89 26h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $161 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $131 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $144 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $180 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $198 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $200 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $124 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $124 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $141 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $182 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $182 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $182 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $143 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $175 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $73 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.35 · official $4.34 (match) · 318 history records