Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7ff1…e002 weather 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-4%) realized −$145 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%167W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$10
14 days−$28
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$114
politics 5% $0
world 2% +$4
tech 2% −$52
other 1% +$10
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -7.3% -16.1% 72% 42% -6.0%
≤30d 218 -14.0% -22.2% 53% 35% -12.7%
≤90d 335 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 31% -11.5%
all 336 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 31% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 31% -13.0%
10% -29.6% 19% -21.4%
15% -36.4% 13% -29.0%
20% -42.6% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses167 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)336 / 344
History coverage354d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 27? No 86¢ 87¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? No 85¢ 84¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? No 92¢ 90¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27? No 64¢ 64¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? No 60¢ 59¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? No 81¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $60 +$23 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 26? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $30 −$17 -57%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +77%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 24? Jun 25 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 24 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 24 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 23 $19 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 23 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $25 20m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 87¢ $25 20m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $25 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 27? BUY No 64¢ $25 20m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $25 20m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 47¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 89¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 80¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 81¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 96¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? SELL No 70¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? SELL No 70¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 26? SELL No 86¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 26? SELL No 86¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 75¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 75¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 77¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 67¢ $12 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.99 · official $148.99 (match) · 914 history records