Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ff3…e007 other 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-4%) realized −$130 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%122W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$79
tech 20% −$62
crypto 17% −$55
world 12% +$2
politics 9% +$14
sports 8% +$8
finance 5% +$7
culture 1% +$11
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 60% -3.6%
≤30d 6 +8.6% -1.7% 67% 67% +1.0%
≤90d 53 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 40% -19.5%
all 215 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 38% -13.0%
10% -23.0% 29% -21.3%
15% -30.5% 25% -28.9%
20% -37.3% 17% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses122 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)215 / 228
History coverage208d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $27 +$5 +19%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +65%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 19 $13 −$12 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$5 -18%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 17 $10 −$1 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $14 $0 -0%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? May 08 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 28 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to Apr Apr 27 $5 +$5 +104%
New pandemic in 2026? Apr 26 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 21 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 21 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundt Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $23 +$9 +37%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $5 +$10 +197%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $6 +$5 +77%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $56 +$8 +14%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $35 +$16 +44%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $77 −$68 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $23 −$20 -86%
Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $26 +$25 +97%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 07 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 07 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Apr 06 $9 +$9 +104%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1 Apr 04 $94 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $90 +$5 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $20 +$9 +44%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Apr 04 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $23 +$23 +102%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1 +$2 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 78¢ $22 14h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 14h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $5 42h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $10 2d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 21¢ $10 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 11¢ $5 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes $4 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.81 · official $33.06 (match) · 545 history records