Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ff4…ff03 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-28%) realized −$83 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$13
sports 20% −$32
world 19% −$59
finance 9% −$23
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.7% -23.8% 25% 25% +7.1%
≤30d 21 -47.7% -52.6% 19% 19% -32.5%
≤90d 25 -50.5% -55.2% 16% 16% -40.4%
all 25 -50.5% -55.2% 16% 16% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.2% 16% -40.4%
10% -59.5% 12% -46.1%
15% -63.4% 12% -51.3%
20% -67.0% 12% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage70d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-3.5) England 21¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes $23 $6 −$17 (-74%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $31 −$18 -58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$10 -67%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +169%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $10 −$6 -55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 24 $6 $0 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $15 3m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $13 5m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $31 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes $24 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 44h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $8 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $22 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $24 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 11¢ $2 22d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? SELL Yes $2 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 24d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $10 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.35 (match) · 40 history records