Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7ff4…55bc sports 559 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$487 (+3%) realized +$559 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%220W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$42
14 days+$303
30 days+$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$338
sports 25% +$259
world 16% +$399
politics 13% −$8
culture 2% −$14
economics 1% −$96
crypto 1% +$21
tech 1% +$101
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% +21.3%
≤30d 50 +38.6% +25.4% 36% 36% +27.9%
≤90d 62 +54.7% +40.0% 44% 44% +30.3%
all 528 +12.8% +2.0% 42% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 38% -7.1%
10% -7.7% 36% -16.0%
15% -16.7% 32% -24.1%
20% -24.8% 27% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized+$559
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses220 / 308
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions31
Markets (closed)528 / 559
History coverage531d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $201 $141 −$60 (-30%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $129 $120 −$9 (-7%)
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $104 +$62 (+150%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $143 $99 −$44 (-31%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $27 $70 +$42 (+156%)
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $57 $67 +$10 (+17%)
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $67 $57 −$10 (-14%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-19%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+29%)
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $21 −$7 (-25%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+19%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+214%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $3 $7 +$5 (+181%)
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+143%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $4 −$14 (-76%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 28¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $12 +$20 +162%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $33 +$16 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +119%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $19 +$8 +45%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -81%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $107 +$127 +119%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $36 +$187 +519%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $6 +$4 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$14 -41%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $2 +$97 +3895%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2 +$17 +764%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $6 +$9 +139%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 03 $201 +$45 +22%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during TPUSA events on April 17? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Liam Broady Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 02 $26 −$15 -57%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $269 +$357 +133%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $32 +$17 +54%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $88 −$42 -48%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $79 −$27 -34%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $26 +$54 +207%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $28 2h
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $43 2h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 2h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $43 2h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $48 2h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 4h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 16h
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 47h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $896.13 · official $896.13 (match) · 2696 history records