Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7ff6…cc6f crypto 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%166W / 124L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$218
14 days+$218
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$349
world 8% −$116
politics 5% +$326
other 4% −$180
sports 2% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 36% -4.0%
≤30d 83 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 36% -4.0%
≤90d 236 +4.1% -5.8% 61% 47% -11.0%
all 290 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 44% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 44% -10.5%
10% -17.7% 29% -19.0%
15% -25.7% 20% -26.9%
20% -33.0% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$37 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses166 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 299
History coverage606d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $230 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $113 +$83 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $83 +$11 +14%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$18 +526%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Ir Jun 23 $2 +$60 +2927%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $59 −$55 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $207 −$149 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $223 +$52 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $167 +$28 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $203 −$3 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 22 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $153 +$79 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $102 +$44 +43%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 +$14 +60%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $79 +$46 +58%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $31 −$21 -70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$5 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$2 -9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$3 -27%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -41%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$46 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 48¢ $19 59m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $231 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $196 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.87 · official $22.88 · 1812 history records