Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7ffd…08fa sports 448 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$681 (+6%) realized +$682 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%234W / 212L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$92
14 days+$338
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$504
other 2% +$124
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +15.5% +4.5% 54% 54% -5.0%
≤30d 341 +4.0% -5.9% 52% 51% -6.3%
≤90d 446 +5.4% -4.6% 52% 52% -4.1%
all 446 +5.4% -4.6% 52% 52% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 52% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 51% -13.3%
15% -22.1% 50% -21.7%
20% -29.7% 44% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$682
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses234 / 212
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions2
Markets (closed)446 / 448
History coverage39d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ 64¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$21 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -54%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $47 +$33 +71%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $45 +$41 +91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$23 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -3%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 +$22 +50%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $19 +$24 +123%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $17 +$14 +82%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $21 +$16 +73%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $20 +$22 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $37 +$27 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$33 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $21 +$13 +60%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $13 +$8 +62%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$31 +89%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $26 +$32 +121%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $28 +$38 +133%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $26 +$22 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 +$40 +124%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $16 +$27 +165%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 +$23 +58%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $45 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $36 +$15 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$31 +237%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $19 −$6 -29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $77 −$27 -34%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $14 +$17 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $19 55m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $18 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 14h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $80 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $61 17h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $86 20h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $41 25h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $40 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $22 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $42 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 55¢ $14 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $15 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $43 36h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $43 36h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 44¢ $19 37h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 51¢ $31 37h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $31 38h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 54¢ $17 38h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $37 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.30 · official $79.30 (match) · 905 history records