Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x8006…82d9 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$636 (-11%) realized −$552 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$309
14 days−$662
30 days−$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$339
sports 18% −$393
crypto 2% +$6
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.2% -0.3% 45% 36% +6.7%
≤30d 37 -16.8% -24.8% 41% 32% -20.2%
≤90d 37 -16.8% -24.8% 41% 32% -20.2%
all 37 -16.8% -24.8% 41% 32% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 32% -20.2%
10% -32.0% 22% -27.8%
15% -38.5% 19% -34.8%
20% -44.6% 16% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -57% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$93 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$552
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 32¢ $200 $117 −$83 (-42%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 +$47 +16%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $61 +$316 +521%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $172 +$104 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 +$37 +181%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$53 +344%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 +$53 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $604 −$604 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $503 +$96 +19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $523 −$510 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $504 +$114 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$283 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $990 +$14 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $348 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $377 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $276 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.21 · official $316.21 (match) · 64 history records