Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x800a…0b4d sports 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,277 (-13%) realized −$19,284 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%134W / 243L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$2,468est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$773
7 days−$682
14 days−$2,073
30 days−$11,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$12,441
other 23% −$6,909
crypto 4% −$1,730
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 23% 23% -26.0%
≤30d 118 -27.3% -34.2% 28% 27% -27.0%
≤90d 377 -17.2% -25.0% 36% 34% -22.6%
all 377 -17.2% -25.0% 36% 34% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 34% -22.6%
10% -32.2% 31% -30.0%
15% -38.8% 29% -36.8%
20% -44.8% 24% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$252 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$19,284
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses134 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$2,468
Open positions1
Markets (closed)377 / 378
History coverage73d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $339 $346 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $377 +$461 +122%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $499 −$123 -24%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $303 −$297 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,094 −$1,069 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $195 −$190 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $142 −$138 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $261 +$683 +262%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $288 +$567 +197%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $190 −$186 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $142 −$138 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 −$58 -58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $95 −$93 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $479 −$469 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 09 $508 −$500 -98%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $185 −$180 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $288 −$103 -36%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $500 −$491 -98%
Spread: Greece (-1.5) Jun 04 $333 −$325 -98%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 04 $219 −$214 -97%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $166 +$53 +32%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $166 −$161 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $246 −$242 -99%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $487 −$397 -82%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $519 −$365 -70%
Spread: Georgia (-1.5) Jun 02 $563 −$549 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 02 $538 +$25 +5%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $997 −$461 -46%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $226 −$222 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $704 −$690 -98%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $383 +$322 +84%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $518 −$136 -26%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $567 +$275 +48%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $323 +$73 +23%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) May 31 $997 −$981 -98%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) May 31 $343 +$655 +191%
Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) May 31 $69 −$68 -98%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 30 $144 −$140 -98%
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) May 30 $306 −$299 -98%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $338 −$32 -10%
Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) May 30 $736 −$719 -98%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5 May 30 $437 +$301 +69%
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 May 30 $343 +$94 +27%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 29 $283 −$279 -98%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 29 $2,433 −$2,389 -98%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $1,032 +$375 +36%
Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5) May 28 $1,993 −$1,959 -98%
Will Petrojet SC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $781 −$769 -98%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $295 −$109 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $347 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $838 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $377 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $377 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $499 6h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $303 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1,094 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 18¢ $102 26h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 19¢ $195 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $142 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $943 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $261 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $288 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $190 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $142 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $42 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $100 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $95 5d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $479 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 41¢ $508 9d
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 13¢ $143 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 17¢ $185 11d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $185 11d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $287 11d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 11d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $500 14d
Spread: Greece (-1.5) BUY Greece 22¢ $333 14d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Cyprus 11¢ $219 14d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $220 14d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $166 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.06 · official $346.06 (match) · 703 history records