Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x800b…db7a other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$126 (-35%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$100
sports 22% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 25% -46.9%
≤30d 16 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 25% -46.9%
≤90d 16 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 25% -46.9%
all 16 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 25% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 25% -46.9%
10% -49.2% 25% -52.0%
15% -54.1% 25% -56.6%
20% -58.6% 25% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $9 13h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 14h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $23 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $29 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $23 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 36h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 38h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 38h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.47 · official $50.47 (match) · 26 history records