Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x800c…0bad sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$84 (+12%) realized +$135 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$25
other 36% +$61
crypto 16% −$5
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -2.5%
≤30d 16 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 31% +5.3%
≤90d 16 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 31% +5.3%
all 16 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 31% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 31% +5.3%
10% -43.6% 31% -4.8%
15% -49.0% 31% -14.0%
20% -54.0% 31% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$13 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage31d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 14¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-81%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$40 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$19 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$26 -86%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $15 +$21 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$10 +10%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $138 −$6 -4%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $41 +$70 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $71 +$43 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $15 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 8¢ $4 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 23h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $112 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 31¢ $20 18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 2¢ $5 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens SELL Hurricanes 58¢ $91 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 43¢ $40 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $91 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 44¢ $42 23d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 22¢ $36 24d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 36¢ $41 27d
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $67.22 · 34 history records