Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x800f…b7ff sports 413 markets active 21h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-11%) realized −$164 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%163W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$45
14 days−$68
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$84
crypto 34% −$107
other 11% −$9
world 1% −$11
culture 0% −$3
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 43% -16.4%
≤30d 266 -5.6% -14.6% 39% 38% -20.0%
≤90d 412 -16.3% -24.2% 40% 35% -21.9%
all 412 -16.3% -24.2% 40% 35% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 35% -21.9%
10% -31.5% 32% -29.4%
15% -38.1% 27% -36.2%
20% -44.2% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses163 / 249
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)412 / 413
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $12 −$9 -79%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $3 +$8 +246%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -31%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$4 -53%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$15 +98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -95%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 13 $7 +$7 +104%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +325%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $11 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 14¢ $2 21h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $6 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $11 26h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 49¢ $3 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 36h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $5 36h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $3 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $15 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $3 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $10 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 980 history records