Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x800f…0e35 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 26% $0
politics 11% −$1
finance 4% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 34 -1.9% -11.3% 47% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage392d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 28 $7 $0 -4%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $18 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 03 $19 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $27 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $14 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $22 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 46h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $40 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $40 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $23 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $19 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records