Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
80 0x8010…04e4 other 1015 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,536 (+11%) realized +$23,536 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%793W / 222L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,514
7 days+$1,046
14 days+$1,046
30 days+$2,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$15,208
sports 30% +$7,137
world 2% +$294
crypto 1% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +17.4% +6.2% 72% 25% -7.2%
≤30d 117 +19.2% +7.8% 72% 26% -5.4%
≤90d 866 +28.1% +15.9% 79% 37% +0.5%
all 1015 +28.9% +16.6% 78% 36% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.6% 36% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here +5.4% 24% -9.7%
15% -4.8% 17% -18.4%
20% -14.1% 13% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$37 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23,536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses793 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1015 / 1015
History coverage103d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1015 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $607 +$18 +3%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $606 +$263 +43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 +$15 +5%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $105 +$34 +32%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $900 −$1 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $220 +$2 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $333 +$7 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,186 −$158 -13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $601 +$16 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $903 −$47 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $78 −$43 -55%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $600 +$5 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $779 −$194 -25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $601 −$27 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,562 −$184 -12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $300 +$14 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $601 +$11 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $12 +$3 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $631 −$343 -54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $196 −$141 -72%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $421 −$89 -21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $423 +$11 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,471 −$881 -36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $771 −$131 -17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $344 +$5 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$108 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $301 +$34 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$16 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $543 −$17 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 +$83 +28%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $649 +$28 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $276 +$179 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,071 +$109 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$34 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 +$48 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $901 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $625 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $869 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $315 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $139 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $303 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $900 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $300 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $300 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $300 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $105 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $21 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $220 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $33 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $300 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $907 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $617 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $307 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $300 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3225 history records