Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8011…a784 crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,040 (+14%) realized +$5,040 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%132W / 103L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$827
14 days−$1,532
30 days+$668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,086
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -34.3% -40.6% 35% 35% -41.3%
≤30d 83 +5.7% -4.4% 55% 55% -4.9%
≤90d 230 +10.3% -0.2% 57% 57% +2.0%
all 235 +8.0% -2.3% 56% 56% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 56% +1.3%
10% -11.7% 56% -8.4%
15% -20.2% 55% -17.2%
20% -28.0% 54% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$151 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$5,040
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses132 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage91d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$91 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $97 −$95 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$90 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $91 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $88 −$84 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$87 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$92 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $91 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$87 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$89 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $97 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $254 −$245 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $254 −$245 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $251 +$259 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $254 −$245 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $249 −$240 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $226 −$218 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $240 −$232 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $253 −$249 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $250 +$231 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 05 $30 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $234 −$226 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $243 −$235 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$281 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $89 +$79 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 05 $219 −$211 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $130 +$110 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $252 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $254 +$237 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $254 +$218 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $254 +$218 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $253 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $248 +$232 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $254 +$227 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $223 +$277 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $254 +$227 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 30 $188 +$139 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $77 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1445 history records