Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8013…3c26 other 71 markets active 19h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 54L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
politics 15% −$12
other 12% +$9
sports 2% +$58
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 20 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 54 +1.6% -8.1% 20% 15% -8.8%
all 69 +3.6% -6.2% 22% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 14% -9.3%
10% -15.2% 14% -18.0%
15% -23.4% 14% -25.9%
20% -30.9% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage625d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $6 +$6 +90%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $251 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $120 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $11 +$9 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$7 +50%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 06 $14 +$19 +133%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 19h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 20h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 44h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 44h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $7 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $6 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.30 · official $107.30 (match) · 321 history records