Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x8017…7928 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$21
politics 34% −$22
sports 8% +$54
crypto 7% −$3
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 147 +5.6% -4.5% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -13.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -22.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -29.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage126d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $292 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $251 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $646 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $306 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $301 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $348 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,240 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 03 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $324 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 21h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 32h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 36h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 10d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 13d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 13d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 23d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $350 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $251 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $251 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $344 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $344 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $271 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.97 · official $53.97 (match) · 444 history records