Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8017…3366 sports 234 markets active 19h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,018 (+2%) realized +$2,018 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate72%169W / 65L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$540per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,713
7 days+$4,354
14 days+$4,287
30 days+$4,713
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$3,699
sports 40% −$495
world 5% +$826
crypto 4% −$1,006
politics 2% −$1,155
tech 2% +$137
culture 1% −$448
finance 1% +$60
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +22.0% +10.4% 78% 28% -1.0%
≤30d 83 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 36% -3.4%
≤90d 83 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 36% -3.4%
all 234 -4.1% -13.2% 72% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -6.8%
10% -21.5% 24% -15.8%
15% -29.1% 11% -23.9%
20% -36.1% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$179 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,018
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses169 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage262d
Avg bet$540
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,385 +$121 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $696 +$7 +1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,214 +$224 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3,411 +$530 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,754 +$566 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,316 +$81 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,655 −$1,434 -87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,927 +$3,200 +54%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $1,823 +$318 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $432 +$68 +16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,563 +$32 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,561 +$278 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,727 −$96 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $3,070 +$699 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,529 +$30 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,199 +$328 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1,255 −$55 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,182 +$73 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,114 +$68 +6%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $967 +$148 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $1,144 −$710 -62%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $952 −$419 -44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,735 +$68 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $586 −$555 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$96 +786%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $318 −$43 -14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2,677 +$93 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $1,686 +$17 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,496 +$17 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $2,362 +$134 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,013 +$349 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,892 +$121 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $50 +$30 +60%
Set Handicap: Mrva (-1.5) vs Tseng (+1.5) Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $2,493 +$163 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 11 $1,219 +$168 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 11 $1,084 +$176 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5 Jun 11 $1,130 +$161 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,549 −$809 -52%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $53 −$22 -42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $86 +$10 +12%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $673 −$221 -33%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,873 +$164 +9%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3,517 +$98 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3,550 −$104 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $427 +$73 +17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $6 +$2 +31%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $325 +$30 +9%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3,306 +$215 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $301 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1,083 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $696 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $3,235 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $826 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $111 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $19 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $22 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 86¢ $3,411 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $7,754 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $201 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $647 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $2,719 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,597 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,008 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $4,605 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $657 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $657 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $432 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $211 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $156 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $194 46h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY No 99¢ $8 47h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY No 98¢ $106 47h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY No 84¢ $1,709 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,486 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $332 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 872 history records