Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x801d…d8e0 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32,149 (+10%) realized +$41,466 · open −$9,317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%95W / 77L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,684per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Fees−$1,095est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$97,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,743
7 days+$14,991
14 days+$18,993
30 days+$52,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$14,373
crypto 20% +$10,684
sports 13% +$15,204
finance 6% −$1,725
other 4% +$1,484
politics 0% +$5,660
economics 0% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.0% -9.6% 45% 38% +23.8%
≤30d 113 +13.9% +3.1% 55% 44% +21.1%
≤90d 172 +7.5% -2.7% 55% 44% +13.4%
all 172 +7.5% -2.7% 55% 44% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 44% +13.4%
10% -12.0% 40% +2.6%
15% ← realistic here -20.5% 33% -7.3%
20% -28.3% 29% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,413) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,021 vs −$544 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$97,932
Realized+$41,466
Unrealized−$9,317
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses95 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,095
Open positions22
Markets (closed)172 / 192
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$1,684
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $37,258 $38,055 +$797 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $13,840 $12,535 −$1,305 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 92¢ $7,937 $8,325 +$388 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $5,284 $5,961 +$677 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $8,450 $5,185 −$3,265 (-39%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $4,530 $4,775 +$245 (+5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $3,459 $3,876 +$417 (+12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 20¢ $10,877 $3,720 −$7,157 (-66%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 92¢ $3,197 $3,400 +$204 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,909 $2,973 +$64 (+2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $1,981 $1,886 −$95 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,810 $1,850 +$40 (+2%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 95¢ 92¢ $1,238 $1,192 −$45 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $954 $962 +$8 (+1%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $772 $885 +$114 (+15%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $740 $815 +$75 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No 76¢ 89¢ $686 $801 +$115 (+17%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $376 $399 +$23 (+6%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 43¢ $405 $215 −$190 (-47%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 83¢ 31¢ $299 $113 −$186 (-62%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Down 48¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $3,029 +$2,429 +80%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $613 +$337 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $245 +$255 +104%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $900 +$10 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $910 +$90 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $500 +$500 +100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $1,154 +$94 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $120 +$880 +733%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $245 +$255 +104%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $220 +$780 +354%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $200 +$800 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $245 +$255 +104%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $1,413 +$195 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 21 $789 −$670 -85%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $528 +$222 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5,160 +$1,326 +26%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $230 −$230 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $14,566 +$9,697 +67%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $543 +$1,207 +222%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $1,433 +$417 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,542 +$203 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $490 +$510 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 20 $890 +$105 +12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $290 −$290 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,586 −$1,550 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $1,779 +$221 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $991 15m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $888 21m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $104 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $792 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,827 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY No 92¢ $120 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $1,657 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 86¢ $601 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $493 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $457 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $315 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $285 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $961 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $768 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $208 18h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 18h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $72 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $96 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $17 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 48¢ $48 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $199 25h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $119 25h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY No 94¢ $94 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 31h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 91¢ $211 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,932.36 · official $97,913.96 (match) · 3500 history records