Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x801d…adcd other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 245L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$43
sports 24% −$19
politics 8% −$5
culture 6% −$8
economics 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage137d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $647 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $375 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $812 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $780 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $437 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $688 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $644 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $281 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $400 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $156 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $314 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $263 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $143 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $306 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $170 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 7h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 9h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 13h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 27h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 36h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 38h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 40h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 42h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 43h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 44h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.07 · official $62.07 (match) · 1366 history records