Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8022…44c6 sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+5%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%120W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$42
14 days+$77
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$68
other 11% −$35
weather 3% +$7
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +5.3% -4.8% 52% 52% -4.8%
≤30d 243 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 49% -7.4%
≤90d 243 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 49% -7.4%
all 243 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 49% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 49% -7.4%
10% -16.6% 49% -16.2%
15% -24.6% 49% -24.3%
20% -32.0% 44% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses120 / 123
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)243 / 250
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 48¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 43¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 +$12 +115%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $10 +$17 +171%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $10 +$15 +145%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $10 +$13 +123%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 +$7 +139%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $10 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $10 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 88¢ $22 3h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $29 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $10 7h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $10 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $10 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 49¢ $10 15h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 35¢ $10 15h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $10 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 16h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $5 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $10 17h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 46¢ $10 21h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $10 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $10 25h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $10 25h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei SELL Martyna Kubka 94¢ $28 28h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 100¢ $25 31h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $10 32h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 34¢ $10 33h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $10 34h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $10 34h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $23 35h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $10 35h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $10 35h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Shuai Zhang 30¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.30 · official $65.31 (match) · 383 history records