Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8023…cfd4 weather 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,264 (+1%) realized +$1,360 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate32%123W / 260L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day132.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$305
14 days+$587
30 days+$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -26.3% -33.3% 39% 15% -10.3%
≤30d 383 -3.4% -12.6% 32% 12% -9.2%
≤90d 383 -3.4% -12.6% 32% 12% -9.2%
all 383 -3.4% -12.6% 32% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 12% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 7% -17.9%
15% -28.6% 5% -25.8%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$11 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,442
Realized+$1,360
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses123 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)383 / 386
History coverage17d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day132.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,445 $1,442 −$3 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 91¢ 91¢ $695 $697 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 74¢ 78¢ $256 $267 +$11 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $111 $12 −$99 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $72 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $24 +$132 +553%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $278 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $190 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 82°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$17 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $48 −$43 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $76 −$35 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $123 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $94 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 16 $18 +$17 +94%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 16 $21 +$9 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 16 $129 −$20 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $21 −$6 -29%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $677 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $132 −$69 -52%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $166 −$45 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $763 +$31 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $263 −$64 -24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $190 +$45 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $391 +$50 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $129 +$8 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $232 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $145 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $297 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $188 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $72 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $296 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $90 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $94 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,441.96 · official $2,441.06 (match) · 2455 history records