Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x8023…29ef sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,351 (-14%) realized −$2,350 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%90W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$25
14 days+$159
30 days−$2,307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1,025
crypto 33% −$1,755
sports 28% +$195
tech 1% +$101
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -7.7% -16.5% 74% 41% -8.9%
≤30d 91 -8.5% -17.2% 66% 41% -25.5%
≤90d 146 -13.0% -21.3% 62% 40% -22.8%
all 146 -13.0% -21.3% 62% 40% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -22.8%
10% -28.8% 21% -30.2%
15% -35.7% 14% -36.9%
20% -42.0% 7% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$68 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$2,350
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses90 / 56
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 149
History coverage41d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $411 +$25 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $162 +$19 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $351 +$41 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $252 +$131 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $450 −$198 -44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $152 −$7 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$31 +15%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$17 +55%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $333 +$48 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$35 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $131 −$130 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $456 +$45 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $359 +$66 +18%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $5 $0 -8%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $852 −$850 -100%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $20 −$5 -27%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $120 +$2 +2%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $131 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $401 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $392 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $351 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $383 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $201 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $252 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $350 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $72 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $72 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 3d
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 3d
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 4d
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.40 · official $39.40 (match) · 366 history records