Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8024…9ee8 other 494 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,123 (-15%) realized −$1,122 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%200W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$41
14 days−$43
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$542
sports 36% −$498
crypto 4% −$88
world 1% +$22
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -3.9% -13.1% 38% 36% -0.3%
≤30d 160 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 274 -12.2% -20.6% 45% 43% -17.8%
all 440 -13.3% -21.5% 45% 42% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -22.9%
10% -29.0% 37% -30.3%
15% -35.9% 30% -37.0%
20% -42.2% 23% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,122
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses200 / 240
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)440 / 494
History coverage191d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +119%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $32 −$23 -72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $46 −$23 -49%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +40%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $8 +$7 +91%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Spread: Tun Jun 21 $5 −$4 -81%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -71%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$14 -66%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 20 $5 +$11 +211%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $83 −$12 -14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 Jun 19 $2 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$11 +69%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06 Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +323%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$9 +172%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $9 56m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $30 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 32¢ $10 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Nor BUY 42¢ $3 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 32¢ $10 11h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 11h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 81¢ $5 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Ex BUY 2¢ $5 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor BUY 11¢ $2 20h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 41¢ $20 33h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 29¢ $5 35h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: B BUY 17¢ $5 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 45¢ $5 36h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $8 36h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: U BUY 16¢ $5 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $5 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $2 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY 55¢ $2 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 70¢ $2 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 45h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $16 45h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.40 · official $54.40 · 986 history records