Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8024…5de2 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$207 (+109%) realized +$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +131% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$32
sports 24% +$121
world 6% +$59
crypto 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+108.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +130.7% +108.8% 22% 22% +68.9%
≤30d 51 +130.7% +108.8% 22% 22% +68.9%
≤90d 51 +130.7% +108.8% 22% 22% +68.9%
all 51 +130.7% +108.8% 22% 22% +68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +108.8% 22% +68.9%
10% ← realistic here +88.8% 22% +52.7%
15% +70.5% 22% +38.0%
20% +53.8% 22% +24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +129% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +131% · $-wt +129% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +201% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$3 · ×10.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$67 +2161%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2 +$11 +550%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -74%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$15 +711%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +471%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$46 +1493%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$54 +5290%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$49 +4752%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 +$23 +442%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 18h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $3 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.27 · official $30.38 (match) · 93 history records