Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8028…4d73 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$7
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$16
other 38% −$26
politics 14% −$1
world 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.2% -6.6% 25% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -31.6%
≤90d 19 -18.9% -26.7% 21% 5% -10.4%
all 19 -18.9% -26.7% 21% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 5% -10.4%
10% -33.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -40.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -46.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$14 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage78d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $57 +$8 +14%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $71 −$15 -21%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: FC København (-2.5) May 22 $503 +$42 +8%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $504 $0 +0%
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 4.5 May 21 $466 +$39 +8%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 20 $461 −$1 -0%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-2.5) May 20 $439 +$27 +6%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $450 −$10 -2%
Spread: Genoa CFC (-2.5) Apr 26 $12 −$8 -66%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Apr 26 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Watford FC (-2.5) Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 09 $294 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $34 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes $21 3h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes $20 3h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $21 4h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $20 4h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $27 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $26 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $26 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $33 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $32 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $28 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $29 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $40 13d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $42 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $27 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $29 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $34 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $36 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 34d
Spread: FC København (-2.5) BUY Brøndby IF 92¢ $503 35d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL No 95¢ $504 35d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY No 95¢ $504 35d
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $466 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records