Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x802d…d59a weather 388 markets active 4h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$289 (+16%) realized +$199 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%70W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days+$287
14 days+$190
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$280
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 +50.0% +35.7% 30% 30% +14.2%
≤30d 271 +26.2% +14.1% 25% 25% +3.7%
≤90d 272 +26.2% +14.1% 26% 26% +3.7%
all 272 +26.2% +14.1% 26% 26% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.1% 26% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here +3.2% 26% -6.2%
15% -6.7% 25% -15.2%
20% -15.9% 25% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses70 / 202
Open positions116
Markets (closed)272 / 388
History coverage36d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 116 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $10 $57 +$47 (+452%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $8 $40 +$32 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 94¢ $16 $37 +$22 (+137%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 68¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+144%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+451%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $11 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $6 $15 +$8 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+736%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$58 +1110%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +987%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$11 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 +$27 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$21 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$19 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$16 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$17 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$17 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$22 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$20 +824%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$15 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$18 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$16 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$10 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.76 · official $800.50 (match) · 875 history records