Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x802e…76fd
sports · 1488 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$14,269 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,023 · open −$850
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$894
Realized+$7,023
Unrealized−$850
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1455 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1462 / 1488
History coverage67d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 26 History 1462 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$443
7 days+$777
14 days+$893
30 days+$4,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
JJ Bleday: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $124 $63 −$61 (-49%)
Zac Gallen: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $124 $63 −$61 (-49%)
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $124 $63 −$61 (-49%)
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $111 $56 −$54 (-49%)
Freddie Freeman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 50¢ $108 $55 −$52 (-48%)
Jackson Chourio: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 50¢ $98 $50 −$47 (-48%)
Hunter Goodman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 52¢ $80 $42 −$38 (-48%)
Andrew Abbott: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $75 $38 −$37 (-49%)
Iván Herrera: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 50¢ $73 $38 −$35 (-48%)
Stephen Kolek: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $65 $33 −$32 (-49%)
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 51¢ $55 $29 −$27 (-48%)
Andrew Abbott: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Victor Caratini: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Spencer Arrighetti: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
JJ Wetherholt: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Walker Buehler: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Andrew Abbott: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Alec Burleson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 50¢ $52 $27 −$25 (-48%)
Trevor Rogers: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $49 $25 −$24 (-49%)
Walker Buehler: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $49 $25 −$24 (-49%)
Spencer Arrighetti: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $46 $23 −$22 (-49%)
Spencer Arrighetti: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $43 $22 −$21 (-49%)
Michael McGreevy: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Over 97¢ 50¢ $42 $22 −$20 (-48%)
Taj Bradley: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $39 $20 −$19 (-49%)
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Over 97¢ 50¢ $28 $15 −$14 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
James Wood: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
Emerson Hancock: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
Miles Mikolas: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Emerson Hancock: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
Paul Skenes: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Paul Skenes: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $78 +$1 +1%
Max Meyer: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Max Meyer: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Max Meyer: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Joe Mack: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $203 +$3 +2%
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $181 +$3 +2%
Trevor McDonald: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
Joey Estes: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Zack Gelof: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Joey Estes: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Kyle Freeland: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Kyle Freeland: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Brett Sullivan: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Griffin Jax: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Griffin Jax: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
José Soriano: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
José Soriano: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Christian Walker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Mike Burrows: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Mike Burrows: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $129 +$102 +79%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $136 +$190 +140%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $47 +$2 +4%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $25 +$3 +14%
Shane Drohan: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Garrett Mitchell: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $111 +$1 +1%
Shane Drohan: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Shane Drohan: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Edmundo Sosa: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Colt Emerson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Cade Cavalli: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Max Muncy: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Colson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $47 +$3 +7%
Ryan Ward: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Alex Freeland: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Ryan Ward: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $103 +$2 +2%
Alex Freeland: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Samad Taylor: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $148 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$6,173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 24m
Spencer Arrighetti: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $43 37m
Spencer Arrighetti: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 38m
JJ Wetherholt: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 39m
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $111 41m
Stephen Kolek: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $65 44m
Taj Bradley: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $39 50m
Hunter Goodman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $80 55m
Spencer Arrighetti: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $46 1h
Victor Caratini: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 1h
Alec Burleson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $53 1h
Iván Herrera: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $73 1h
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 97¢ $28 1h
Michael McGreevy: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $14 1h
Michael McGreevy: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $14 1h
Michael McGreevy: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $14 1h
Andrew Abbott: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 1h
Emerson Hancock: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $124 1h
Emerson Hancock: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $124 1h
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $124 1h
Andrew Abbott: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 1h
Trevor Rogers: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $49 1h
Zac Gallen: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $124 1h
Andrew Abbott: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $75 1h
Patrick Corbin: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $28 1h
Walker Buehler: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 1h
Miles Mikolas: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $6 1h
Walker Buehler: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $49 1h
Jackson Chourio: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $98 1h
Freddie Freeman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $108 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 11% -3.6%
≤30d 299 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 17% +1.0%
≤90d 1462 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 10% -4.4%
all 1462 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 10% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 10% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 7% -13.5%
15% -22.2% 5% -21.9%
20% -29.8% 3% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.03 · official $894.03 (match) · 3500 history records